Small Craft Advisory 820, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM ADT TUE OCT 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...GFS AND UKMET POSITION OF LOW 970S MB LOW OVER THE
GULF APPEARS TO BE BEST. ETA/MESO ETA POSITION ARE WELL SW OF SAT
POSITION AND SUPPORTING BUOY/SHIP OBS.

EXPECT THIS CENTER WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ON SHORE NEAR YAKUTAT WED.
NE GALES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND WEST WHILE WEAKENING.
FRONTS CIRRUS SHIELD IS MOVING INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS MOISTURE SPREADING WEST
ALONG THE NORTH GULF. EXPECT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONVECTIVE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND GULF FRONT BACKS WEST. COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL/WESTERN GULF WED...BUT ALSO AIR
TENDS TO DRY SOME. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
(RAIN/SNOW) OVER THE REGION THROUGH THU AS UPPER LOW SITS OVER
WESTERN AK AND MINOR SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW MOVE THROUGH.

OUT WEST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS UPPER CENTER CONTINUES OVER WESTERN AK.
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING SURFACE UP AT
PAMC/PABE. WARM WEDGE OF AIR OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING AS ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES EAST WITH COLD ADVECTION THIS
EVENING. WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF RUSSIA SETS UP WARMER SW FLOW OVER
THE BERING SEA WED/THU.

TRACK OF NEXT MAJOR STORM TO APPROACH THE MAINLAND IS STILL
RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN. 12Z GFS RUN RAPIDLY DEVELOPS CENTER AND TAKES
CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AK PEN AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF SAT NIGHT.
CURRENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED IN
BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. SO WOULD
EXPECT GFS DEEPER PRESSURE MAY BE BETTER FIT AND BROAD NEARLY ZONAL
JET ACROSS PACIFIC ALSO GOOD FIT WITH GFS MOVEMENT. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH THAT SOLUTION AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.

AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 2B.

RMC OCT 05