Small Craft Advisory 816, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE PREFERRED MODEL THOUGH THE MESO-ETA SOLUTION
IS COMING CLOSER ITS SOLUTION.

UPPER AIR...THE MAIN 500 MB LOW CENTER NEAR NORTON SOUND WILL REMAIN
NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAKER UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MIRROR THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY AND WILL DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEAS WEDNESDAY AND
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN BERING SEAS THURSDAY.

AT SURFACE...A 981 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND DEEPEN TO 977 MB TUESDAY AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE NEAR YAKUTAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A RESIDUAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA LATER
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE IN THE GULF COAST, MAINLY EAST OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND TUESDAY THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING THAT
WILL SPREAD INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A 983 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATKA WILL DISSIPATE 300 MILES SOUTH OF COLD
BAY TONIGHT. THE FRONT ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT STRETCHES EASTWARD. RAIN SHOWER ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. MORE
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BERING SEA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.

A 992 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTON SOUND TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN
THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY FOR THE NEXT TWO DAY
WHICH WILL MOVE THE RAIN-SNOW LINE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY, COOK
INLET AND KODIAK ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WED AND THU. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL
BAY TUE AND WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

*** OCT 05