Gale Warning 810, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 121201
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED OCT 12 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-130200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 983 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO NEAR
CORDOVA WED AFTERNOON AT 988 MB AND DISSIPATE. A 1003 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD THU MORNING AND MOVE INLAND NEAR
SEWARD THU NIGHT AT 1012 MB. 
$$

PKZ120-130200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT WED OCT 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-130200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT WED OCT 12 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-130200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT WED OCT 12 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-130200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT WED OCT 12 2005

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-130200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT WED OCT 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-130200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT WED OCT 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-130200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT WED OCT 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT GUSTS TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-130200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT WED OCT 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SW 15 KT KALGIN ISLAND NORTH. 
SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT SEAS 4 FT KALGIN ISLAND NORTH. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT SW 10 KT KALGIN ISLAND NORTH. 
SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT SEAS 2 FT KALGIN ISLAND NORTH.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-130200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT WED OCT 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM ADT TUE OCT 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...GFS AND UKMET POSITION OF LOW 970S MB LOW OVER THE
GULF APPEARS TO BE BEST. ETA/MESO ETA POSITION ARE WELL SW OF SAT
POSITION AND SUPPORTING BUOY/SHIP OBS.

EXPECT THIS CENTER WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ON SHORE NEAR YAKUTAT WED.
NE GALES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND WEST WHILE WEAKENING.
FRONTS CIRRUS SHIELD IS MOVING INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS MOISTURE SPREADING WEST
ALONG THE NORTH GULF. EXPECT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONVECTIVE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND GULF FRONT BACKS WEST. COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL/WESTERN GULF WED...BUT ALSO AIR
TENDS TO DRY SOME. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
(RAIN/SNOW) OVER THE REGION THROUGH THU AS UPPER LOW SITS OVER
WESTERN AK AND MINOR SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW MOVE THROUGH.

OUT WEST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS UPPER CENTER CONTINUES OVER WESTERN AK.
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING SURFACE UP AT
PAMC/PABE. WARM WEDGE OF AIR OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING AS ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES EAST WITH COLD ADVECTION THIS
EVENING. WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF RUSSIA SETS UP WARMER SW FLOW OVER
THE BERING SEA WED/THU.

TRACK OF NEXT MAJOR STORM TO APPROACH THE MAINLAND IS STILL
RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN. 12Z GFS RUN RAPIDLY DEVELOPS CENTER AND TAKES
CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AK PEN AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF SAT NIGHT.
CURRENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED IN
BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. SO WOULD
EXPECT GFS DEEPER PRESSURE MAY BE BETTER FIT AND BROAD NEARLY ZONAL
JET ACROSS PACIFIC ALSO GOOD FIT WITH GFS MOVEMENT. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH THAT SOLUTION AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.

AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 2B.

RMC OCT 05