Small Craft Advisory 812, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
330 PM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ALL THE MODEL HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OVER THE WESTERN DOMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH THE GFS SWINGS A TROUGH INTO
KUSKOKWIM BAY WEDNESDAY. IN THE EASTERN DOMAIN THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
I CURRENTLY PREFER THE GSF MODEL IT DEVELOPS A TRIPLE POINT LOW AND
TAKES IT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER AIR...THE MAIN CORE OF THE 300 MB JET WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE 500 MB
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN ALASKA MONDAY
THEN PERSIST OVER NORTON SOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER 500 MB
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE STORM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY THEN DISSIPATE NEAR YAKUTAT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE INLAND EAST OF YAKUTAT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY TONIGHT. A RESIDUAL LOW WILL FORM
NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN, MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS TONIGHT.

A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY AND WILL MOVE
INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HEAD FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUESDAY THOUGH IT MAY
CREATE SOME AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CENTER GULF COAST
TUESDAY.

WESTERN DOMAIN...THE STRONG LOW CENTERED NEAR ATTU THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN THEN WILL WEAKEN
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DISSIPATE SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF SAND POINT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN NORTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY. THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA MONDAY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH RUNS ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY, NORTHERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE YUKON DELTA WILL DIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA MONDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 172, 175, 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 05