Gale Warning 808, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 102357
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA WILL DISSIPATE 300 NM SOUTH OF
COLD BAY MON NIGHT. A 981 MB LOW 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 977 MB 220 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A 992 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTON SOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-111400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-111400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-111400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-111400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-111400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-111400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-111400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-111400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-111400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-111400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-111400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-111400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
330 PM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ALL THE MODEL HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OVER THE WESTERN DOMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH THE GFS SWINGS A TROUGH INTO
KUSKOKWIM BAY WEDNESDAY. IN THE EASTERN DOMAIN THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
I CURRENTLY PREFER THE GSF MODEL IT DEVELOPS A TRIPLE POINT LOW AND
TAKES IT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER AIR...THE MAIN CORE OF THE 300 MB JET WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE 500 MB
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN ALASKA MONDAY
THEN PERSIST OVER NORTON SOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER 500 MB
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE STORM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY THEN DISSIPATE NEAR YAKUTAT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE INLAND EAST OF YAKUTAT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY TONIGHT. A RESIDUAL LOW WILL FORM
NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN, MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS TONIGHT.

A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY AND WILL MOVE
INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HEAD FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUESDAY THOUGH IT MAY
CREATE SOME AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CENTER GULF COAST
TUESDAY.

WESTERN DOMAIN...THE STRONG LOW CENTERED NEAR ATTU THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN THEN WILL WEAKEN
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DISSIPATE SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF SAND POINT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN NORTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY. THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA MONDAY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH RUNS ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY, NORTHERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE YUKON DELTA WILL DIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA MONDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 172, 175, 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 05