Small Craft Advisory 81, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON JAN 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALIGNING VERY WELL THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THEY
ALL HANDLE THE MAIN LOW NEAR SHEMYA FAIRLY WELL THE DIVERGENCE OCCURS
WITH THE SECONDARY LOW AT THE TRIPLE POINT.

AN ARCTIC FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT OF NORTHERN ALASKA OVER ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND. HOWEVER THE MARINE LAYER AND THE SOUTHERLY WARMER
FLOW FROM THE MAIN LOW IN THE BERING SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS COLD
AIR FROM REACHING THE SURFACE OVER THE OPEN WATER. MESOETA IS
FOLLOWING THIS SCENARIO BRINGING THE 980S LOW NORTH AND WEST INTO THE
BERING AND THEN DISSIPATING IT. UKMET SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THE
ICE EDGE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST AROUND NUNIVAK ISLAND AND INTO
BRISTOL BAY. THE LARGER CONTINENTAL SHELF SHOULD ALLOW THE COLDER AIR
TO PENETRATE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN NORMAL. THEREFORE WILL GO
WITH A BLEND OF THE MESOETA AND UKMET KEEPING A WEAK CLOSED LOW BUT
MOVING IT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE UKMET INTO WESTERN KUSKOKWIM BAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE BERING AND THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE Y-K COAST TODAY AND ALONG
THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE Y-K COAST NORTH OF MEKORYUK
FOR BLOWING SNOW OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS.

THE ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
THE COMPLEX OF LOWS AND A DECK OF LOW STRATUS AFFECTING THE CHAIN.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG GALES TO THE BERING AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
STRATUS WILL FILTER IN AND OUT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY PRETTY
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. AREAS OF
CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE
KENAI. THE SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING WILL ALSO BRING GALES
TO COASTAL WATERS AROUND KODIAK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...3A 3B 3C 5A 5B 6A 6B 8 12A 13B 14 15.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...8 14.

RNW JAN 05