Gale Warning 108, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 250014
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON JAN 24 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 975 MB LOW 230 NM EAST OF UNALASKA WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF SAINT
PAUL TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN TO 986 MB AS IT MOVES TO 630 NM
WEST OF SAINT PAUL WED AFTERNOON. A 990 MB LOW WILL FORM 1000 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK TUE AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO 600 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK WED AFTERNOON AS A 985 MB LOW. 

$$

PKZ120-251500-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST MON JAN 24 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-251500-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST MON JAN 24 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-251500-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST MON JAN 24 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-251500-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST MON JAN 24 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-251500-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST MON JAN 24 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-251500-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST MON JAN 24 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS
OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-251500-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST MON JAN 24 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-251500-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST MON JAN 24 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW AND RAIN.

.TUE...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ141-251500-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST MON JAN 24 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON JAN 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALIGNING VERY WELL THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THEY
ALL HANDLE THE MAIN LOW NEAR SHEMYA FAIRLY WELL THE DIVERGENCE OCCURS
WITH THE SECONDARY LOW AT THE TRIPLE POINT.

AN ARCTIC FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT OF NORTHERN ALASKA OVER ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND. HOWEVER THE MARINE LAYER AND THE SOUTHERLY WARMER
FLOW FROM THE MAIN LOW IN THE BERING SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS COLD
AIR FROM REACHING THE SURFACE OVER THE OPEN WATER. MESOETA IS
FOLLOWING THIS SCENARIO BRINGING THE 980S LOW NORTH AND WEST INTO THE
BERING AND THEN DISSIPATING IT. UKMET SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THE
ICE EDGE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST AROUND NUNIVAK ISLAND AND INTO
BRISTOL BAY. THE LARGER CONTINENTAL SHELF SHOULD ALLOW THE COLDER AIR
TO PENETRATE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN NORMAL. THEREFORE WILL GO
WITH A BLEND OF THE MESOETA AND UKMET KEEPING A WEAK CLOSED LOW BUT
MOVING IT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE UKMET INTO WESTERN KUSKOKWIM BAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE BERING AND THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE Y-K COAST TODAY AND ALONG
THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE Y-K COAST NORTH OF MEKORYUK
FOR BLOWING SNOW OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS.

THE ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
THE COMPLEX OF LOWS AND A DECK OF LOW STRATUS AFFECTING THE CHAIN.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG GALES TO THE BERING AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
STRATUS WILL FILTER IN AND OUT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY PRETTY
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. AREAS OF
CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE
KENAI. THE SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING WILL ALSO BRING GALES
TO COASTAL WATERS AROUND KODIAK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...3A 3B 3C 5A 5B 6A 6B 8 12A 13B 14 15.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...8 14.

RNW JAN 05