Small Craft Advisory 759, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT THU SEP 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC NCEP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS VERY GOOD. FORECAST
TRENDS SIMILAR AND REASONABLE.

.EAST...FRONTAL TROUGH WITH DEEP SW FLOW MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN/EASTERN GULF TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND COPPER RIVER ARE PRODUCING
MODERATE GAP WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONTAL TROUGH. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH NEXT WAVE TO MOVE
INTO BRISTOL BAY FRI. MODELS TEND TO LOCK ONTO VORTICITY MAX IN UPPER
LEVELS WITH ONLY MINOR REFLECTION SHOWING UP AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT
WAVE TO MOVE INTO SW ALASKA FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH WIND WARNING
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ANCHORAGE
BOWL ALONG WITH STRONG GAP WIND CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SAT AS LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

.WEST...UPPER 960S MB LOW NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WELL FORECAST BY
MODELS MOVES OVER NE RUSSIA TONIGHT. STRONG SW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRI.
COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FROM CAPE NEWENHAM TO
DALL POINT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SURGES FORECAST TO BE A
COUPLE OF FEET ABOVE MAX ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS. MAX TIDES DIMINISH
FRI AS WELL AS THREAT. DEEP SW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
OVER WESTERN ALASKA...SO LOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE.
PROBABLY SEE SNOW LEVELS LOWERING ALONG MOUNTAINS AS 850 MB TEMPS
COOL SUN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FRI ZONE 101. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ZONE 155
         AND 161.
MARINE...SEE LATEST PACKAGE.

RMC SEP 05