Small Craft Advisory 746, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...THREE SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS THE OLD LOW THAT IS
SPINNING AROUND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THIS LOW IN CURRENTLY
AROUND 980 MB AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HOOPER BAY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN
DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE OCCLUSION ON THIS LOW IS WRAPPED AROUND THREE TIMES WITH THE
OUTERMOST BAND STRETCHING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST DOWN TO THE
NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT IS NEAR SEWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE SECOND
LOW OF INTEREST TODAY. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR 999 MB AND WILL
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE KENAI MOUNTAINS
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY OVERNIGHT. IT STILL DOES HAVE SOME PUNCH AS
IT IS PRODUCING 40 KNOTS OF WIND AT MIDDLETON ISLAND AND ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE JET STREAM IS CURRENTLY RUNNING WEST TO EAST OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. IT IS FROM THE ENERGY PROVIDED BY THIS JET THAT THE THIRD
SIGNIFICANT LOW IS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND REACH THE WESTERN
GULF OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL ALSO INTENSIFY
AS IT GOES FROM 997 MB THIS AFTERNOON TO 983 MB BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN PROCEED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 100
MILES EAST OF CORDOVA ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BRING STORM
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THAT AREA.

THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/ECMF MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER IN THE BIG PICTURE. THERE ARE TWO SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS THAT SHOULD BE ADDRESSED. THE LOW THAT WILL BE ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST ON SUNDAY IS MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST ON
THE NAM THAT WHERE THE GFS HAS IT DOING SO. I PREFER THE NAM
SOLUTION DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE PROJECTED STRENGTH OF THIS LOW HAS INCREASED
ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS AND THAT WOULD INDICATE A MORE LEFTWARD
MOVEMENT TO THE LOW.

THE OTHER ISSUE TO ADDRESS IS THE LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE
NAM IS MOVING IT A LITTLE FASTER AND MORE TO THE SOUTH AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL ON SUNDAY MORNING. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 170 172 185.
         STORM 120.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ SEP 05