Small Craft Advisory 74, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
500 PM AST FRI JAN 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.500MB...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THOUGHTS. COLD AIR SPILLING
SOUTH FROM THE POLE ENHANCES BERING SEA TROUGH AND INTENSIFIES CENTER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS SAT AND SUN. IN RESPONSE TO
DEPRESSION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA/BRISTOL BAY SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
CENTER OVER NE PACIFIC MOVES TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND
WEAKENS SAT/SUN.

.SURFACE...NCEP AND UKMET MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON 966 MB LOW NEAR
51N 148W AT 12Z THIS MORNING. FORECAST TREND IS TO WEAKEN THIS CENTER
AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTH GULF SAT AND SUN. CENTRAL PRESSURE BY SUN
ARE IN THE LOWER 990S. THE UKMET AND ETA/MESO ETA SOLUTIONS HOLD
CENTER NEAR KODIAK ISLAND...WHILE THE GFS PLACES CENTER NEAR SEWARD
SUN AFTERNOON. ETA/UKMET SOLUTIONS LOOK THE MOST REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL/COPPER RIVER BASIN HAVE MODERATED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ON THE MILD SIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF OF ALASKA WILL FALL ALONG THE COASTS AND EAST EXPOSURES OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AS LOW CENTER WEAKENS SUN...PRECIPITATION
BECOMES FAIRLY DISORGANIZED.

REMNANTS OF WEAK OVERRUNNING OVER SW ALASKA SHOULD END TODAY AS LOWER
LEVEL FLOWS SHIFTS NORTHERLY. EXPECT SAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY IN
SW AK AS ANY PRECIPITATION SPILLING IN FROM THE GULF WILL BE NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE. DEVELOPING LOW COMPLEX APPROACHING THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS CONTAINS A COUPLE OF CENTERS. THE MORE DOMINATE ONE APPEARS
TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND IS ROUGHLY NEAR 43N 163E
AT 18Z. EXACT POSITION DIFFICULT TO VERIFY WITHOUT BUOY AND SHIP
DATA...BUT ESTIMATED SAT POSIT LINES UP WELL WITH GFS/UKMET 6 HR
FCST. EXPECT CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND MOVES AROUND 48N 179W SUN AFTERNOON. SECONDARY CENTERS
LIKELY...BUT EXACT POSITS WILL BE HARD TO NAIL DOWN. EXPECT SOUTH TO
EAST GALES/STORMS AS FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SAT NIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF CENTER AND BENT BACK PORTION OF OCCLUSION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SET LASTEST PACKAGE FOR DETAILS.

RMC JAN 05