Small Craft Advisory 727, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SUN SEP 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...

**USERS NOTE - NO 12Z MODEL DATA RECEIVED EXCEPT FOR 12KM AK ETA**

ANALYSIS - OLD TYPHOON NABI GOT A SHOT OF COLD AIR ALOFT FROM THE OLD
UPPER LOW OVER SIBERIA. THIS CAN BE SEEN FROM A TIME SERIES OF THE
500 MB TEMPS OVER SHEMYA. THE PROBLEM IS THAT IT SLOWED UP THE
FRONT AND MADE MY TIMING YESTERDAY OF PRECIPITATION ALL WRONG FROM
KING SALMON EAST. RAIN JUST RECENTLY MADE IT INTO BRISTOL BAY AND IT
IS SUNNY HERE IN ANCHORAGE. AT 250 MB A 120 KT JET IS FROM THE SOUTH
ALONG 163W OR SO. SATELLITE IMAGERY PARTICULARLY VISIBLE SHOWS A HUGE
DRY SLOT BEHIND THE JET IN THE OCCLUSION WITH A VICIOUS LOOKING COMMA
MOVING ONTO THE PRIBILOFS. THE WIND IS FINALLY COMING UP IN THE
EASTERN MARINE AREAS AND RADARS SHOW RAIN IN SHELIKOF AND THE BARRENS
AS OF 21Z. THE SEAS PEAKED AT BUOY 46073 AT 21 FT WITH G48 KT @19Z.

AER FORECASTS - THE UPPER RIDGE KICKED OUT SLOWER AND WONT ARRIVE
OVER 140W UNTIL 06Z MON. THIS WILL DELAY THE RAIN AND WIND FOR MOST
AREAS UNTIL TONIGHT. A GLACIER DAM BROKE ON THE TAZLINA RIVER
REQUIRING A FLOOD WARNING THERE. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON MONDAY AND ALL THE OLD MODEL RUNS SHOW A PATTERN OF UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. METHINKS THAT WE WILL SEE SOME TERMINATION
DUST AROUND ANCHORAGE MON OR MON NIGHT.

ALU FORECASTS - AS NABI KICKS OUT NORTH TO THE BERING STRAIT THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE SW COAST WILL BECOME ONSHORE. THIS WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING FOR THE K-DELTA AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR MINOR
COASTAL OVERFLOW. MONDAY EVENING HAS A HIGHER TIDE WITH A MORE DIRECT
ONSHORE FLOW BUT LESS WIND SPEED SO WE WILL HOLD THE ADVISORY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. NEXT A SERIES OF MUCH WEAKER LOWS WILL FOLLOW ROUGHLY
THE SAME TRACK FOR GALES FOR MOST OF THE BERING SEA AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING TAZLINA RIVER.
         COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY 155.
         WIND ADVISORY 101 155 161 181 185 187 191 195.
MARINE...STORM 179 180. GALES 160 165 170 171 172 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC SEP 05