Small Craft Advisory 724, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT SEP 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
OLD TYPHOON NABI HAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER SUPPORT. THE COOLER UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER SIBERIA IS NOW PART OF A COMPLEX THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE JET AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS 150 KT
INFLOW ACROSS KAMCHATKA AT 250 MB 12Z WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST BRANCH
UP TO 125 KT INTO BRISTOL BAY. NCEP ANALYSES INSIST THAT -32C AT 500
MB IS IN THE SIBERIAN PART OF THE LOW. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD
CIRCULATION THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF KAMCHATKA SO MAYBE THIS IS THE
COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS A COLD FRONT ALONG
168W AT 20Z  WITH A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE AND SOME SORT OF
DEVELOPMENT AROUND 40N 180.

AER FORECASTS - AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS PER ALL THE MODELS...BUT THE PATTERN IS VERY PROGRESSIVE.
BY 00Z MON ALL MODELS HAVE THE AXIS ALONG 140W OR SO WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED PRECIP MADE IT
INTO COOK INLET SOONER THAN EXPECTED SO WE ARE PRETTY SURE THAT RAIN
WILL START FOR COOK INLET ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE
WESTERN GULF BY SUN EVENING AND MODEL MARINE WINDS LOOK UNDERDONE
WITH THIS FRONT. THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AT 850 MB IS
STRONG ON THE 12Z ETA MODEL. AND THE IDEA FOR SOME TERMINATION DUST
MONDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD.

ALU FORECASTS - AS THE OLD TYPHOON NABI STARTS TO PULL OUT TO THE
NORTH WE STILL THINK THAT STORM FORCE WESTERLIES WILL GO ON SUNDAY IN
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH LOTS OF GALES AROUND THE LOW. MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE SW COAST IS STRONG ONSHORE.
WE WILL HEADLINE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HIGH TIDES AND WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY DAY SHIFT TO DECIDE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON IF A WARNING IS NEEDED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY 185 187 191 195.
MARINE...GALES 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 185. (STORM OFFSHORE)
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC SEP 05