Small Craft Advisory 718, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT FRI SEP 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
BERING TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE STATE.  ON THE WATER
VAPOR THE JET STREAM CONTINUES TO FLOW FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
PUSHING PLENTY OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  HEAVY RAIN IS
FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION RECEIVING THE BRUNT OF THE WEATHER. THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH BETHEL SO PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

IN THE EASTERN ZONES THE FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY UP THE COOK INLET
AND INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.  ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHEASTERLY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPING AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT
PASS THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW SO PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OUT WEST CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND
EASTWARD.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSSED THROUGH
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
LATER ON TODAY.  THE ALEUTIANS ARE CURRENTLY ENJOYING A BRIEF RESPITE
AS THEY LIE IN THE COL BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE NEXT.  AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND RAIN WILL MOVE IN AGAIN.

MODEL DISCUSSION...DUE TO A COMMUNICATION PROBLEM THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
MODELS NEVER MADE IT IN.  GFS WAS CHOSEN FOR THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
CONSISTANCY.  THE 06Z RUN OF THE MESOETA DID COME IN AND WHILE IT
LOOKS ACCURATE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH IT SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE FAST IN
TIMING.  WATCH RADAR AND SATELLITE CAREFULLY TO TIME THE START AND
STOP OF PRECIPITATION.

EXTENDED FORECAST...STILL LOOKING FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...THE OLD
TYPHOON...TO MOVE ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE BERING.  THIS
SHOULD BRING WINDS AND RAIN TO THE MAINLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AS
WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 150 160 165 180 170 171 172 175 176 179 185 AND WESTERN
         OFFSHORE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEW SEP 05