Gale Warning 703, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT FRI SEP 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - AS OF 21Z THE MAIN SURFACE LOW CENTER AT 990 MB WAS JUST
NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG 160W OR
SO WITH A FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM 30N. A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH
TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA AS WELL AS A FULL OCCLUDED FRONT AROUND THE
LOW. THIS WAS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY -20C 500 MB TEMPS IN A LOW CENTER.
THE 500 MB TEMPS IN NORTHERN SIBERIA ARE AROUND -32C. THE OLD TYPHOON
SHOWS SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT ABOUT 300 NM SW OF SHEMYA AROUND 979 MB.
IT HAS A FULL OCCLUSION TO 180 WITH A SW JET OF 125 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN QUADS.

THE MAIN LOW WILL KICK OUT TO NW ALASKA TONIGHT AS THE OLD TYPHOON
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE EAST. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THIS. THIS NEW SYSTEM
BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY 12Z SAT WHICH
RAPIDLY MOVES TO 150W BY 06Z SUN. THIS SETS UP A MAJOR UPPER LOW
ALOFT TO SUPPORT THE OLD TYPHOON AND A MONDO SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (BOTH DOMAINS) WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS AND SOME
BREAKS IN BETWEEN THEM.  SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT GETS INTO THIS SYSTEM
AS EARLY AS SAT. THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FETCH THAT WE SAW YESTERDAY
DOES NOT HIT THE SW COAST UNTIL AFTER HIGH TIDE SO WE WILL KEEP
WATCHING THE TIMING ON THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101. WIND ADVISORY 181 187 191 195.
MARINE...GALES 150 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JC SEP 05