Small Craft Advisory 663, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE AUG 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...GFS INITIALIZED BEST AND FORECAST TREND LOOKS
REASONABLE. GFS WILL BE USED WITH SOME MODIFICATION FOR AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGES.

.SURFACE EAST...
984 MB LOW NEAR BETHEL THIS MORNING MOVES NORTH TO EASTERN NORTON
SOUND AND WEAKENS TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING IS MOVING INTO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY AND GAP WINDS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH EAST PUSH OF FRONT. MODERATE RAINS OVER THE
NORTH GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

.SURFACE WEST...
984 MB LOW NEAR BETHEL THIS MORNING MOVES NORTH TO EASTERN NORTON
SOUND AND WEAKENS TONIGHT. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
BRISTOL BAY WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST WED AND WEAKEN. COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST SHOULD DIMINISH MOST AREAS BY
MIDNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW TIDES. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BRISTOL BAY WED EVENING. NEXT DEVELOPING LOW CENTER
FORMS WEST OF SHEMYA TONIGHT AND MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
PRIBILOFS AND WEAKENS THU MORNING. THIS CENTER LOOKS TO BE MUCH
WEAKER THAN CURRENT LOW OVER SW ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ZONE 161. HIGH WIND WARNING
MARINE...SEE CURRENT
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC AUG 05