Small Craft Advisory 628, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 132324
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1005 MB LOW 75 NM NE OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 100 NM S OF ADAK SUN
AFTERNOON THEN TO 125 NM SW OF DUTCH HARBOR MON AFTERNOON. A 1002 MB
LOW 525 NM S OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO 300 NM S OF KODIAK SUN AFTERNOON
AT 1006 MB AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA MON. HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MON.

$$

PKZ150-141400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-141400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-141400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-141400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-141400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-141400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-141400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON THROUGH TUES...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-141400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
SHOWERS. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-141400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-141400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-141400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-141400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER INTERIOR AK CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AK WITH MORE SUN AND WARM TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MON. THE TWO DAMPENING FACTORS ON THE WEATHER ARE THE
PERVASIVE LAYER OF STRATUS COVERING THE GULF AND THE FIRES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS JUST HOW FAR THE STRATUS
WILL CREEP UP THE INLET AND TIMING ISSUES ON REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH 48 HRS BUT DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY
BY 60 HRS. WILL GO WITH THE NAM FOR NOW IN THE MIDTERM BECAUSE GFS
SEEMS TO BE DISSIPATING THE BLOCKING RIDGE A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY. THIS
WAS ALSO THE FIRST GFS RUN WITH A SOLUTION LEADING TO QUICKLY
DROPPING 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BY WED. PREFER THE NAM
SOLUTION OF KEEPING THE EASTERN GULF RIDGE REACHING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
EVEN AS THE MAIN HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWEST IN THE
INTERIOR.

THIS SOLUTION KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHCENTRAL
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW BUT STILL COOLS TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

IN THE WEST...THE LOW NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MERGING WITH A LOW THAT HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING TOWARD
SAND POINT ALL WEEK FROM THE SOUTH. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
DEVELOPMENT SINCE ALL MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY EVEN
THOUGH ALL INITIALIZED WELL. NAM DISSIPATES THE FIRST LOW ENTIRELY
BUT STILL FORMS A SPLIT LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE
POSITIONING WILL AFFECT THE WINDS AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS. IT
WILL ALSO AFFECT JUST HOW LONG THE LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN THE
PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM IN THE Y-K DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RW AUG 05