Small Craft Advisory 627, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT SAT AUG 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER INTERIOR AK CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AK WITH MORE SUN AND WARM TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MON. THE TWO DAMPENING FACTORS ON THE WEATHER ARE THE
PERVASIVE LAYER OF STRATUS COVERING THE GULF AND THE FIRES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS JUST HOW FAR THE STRATUS
WILL CREEP UP THE INLET AND TIMING ISSUES ON REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH 48 HRS BUT DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY
BY 60 HRS. WILL GO WITH THE NAM FOR NOW IN THE MIDTERM BECAUSE GFS
SEEMS TO BE DISSIPATING THE BLOCKING RIDGE A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY. THIS
WAS ALSO THE FIRST GFS RUN WITH A SOLUTION LEADING TO QUICKLY
DROPPING 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BY WED. PREFER THE NAM
SOLUTION OF KEEPING THE EASTERN GULF RIDGE REACHING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
EVEN AS THE MAIN HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWEST IN THE
INTERIOR.

THIS SOLUTION KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHCENTRAL
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW BUT STILL COOLS TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

IN THE WEST...THE LOW NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MERGING WITH A LOW THAT HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING TOWARD
SAND POINT ALL WEEK FROM THE SOUTH. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
DEVELOPMENT SINCE ALL MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY EVEN
THOUGH ALL INITIALIZED WELL. NAM DISSIPATES THE FIRST LOW ENTIRELY
BUT STILL FORMS A SPLIT LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE
POSITIONING WILL AFFECT THE WINDS AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS. IT
WILL ALSO AFFECT JUST HOW LONG THE LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN THE
PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM IN THE Y-K DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RW AUG 05