Small Craft Advisory 475, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM ADT THU JUN 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE. FORECAST TREND BEST
HANDLED BY GFS.

UPPER AIR...BROAD EAST/WEST LOW COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE GULF OF THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. COMPLEX BECOMES
CUT OFF OVER THE GULF AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MAINLAND. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE HANGS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PORTION OF RIDGE ALIGNS WITH MAINLAND HIGH
AS LOW OVER KAMCHATKA STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST SUN.

SURFACE...WEAKENING LOW CENTER NEAR COLD BAY THIS AFTERNOON MERGES
WITH LOW COMPLEX OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. GULF COMPLEX
SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOIST MID LEVEL SE
FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL/NORTH GULF SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRI.
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR INTENSIFIES FRI AND SAT WITH WARMING
850 MB TEMPS. EXPECT AFTERNOON EVENING CONVECTION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SAT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JUN 05