Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 140023 CCA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST THU JAN 13 2005

CORRECTED AREA 2C

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ120-141500-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST THU JAN 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF
COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ121-141500-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST THU JAN 13 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-141500-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST THU JAN 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-141500-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST THU JAN 13 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-141500-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST THU JAN 13 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT NORTHWEST OF BARREN ISLAND ELSEWHERE SE WIND
25 KT. SEAS 16 FT NORTHWEST OF BARREN ISLAND ELSEWHERE SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN...SE 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-141500-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST THU JAN 13 2005

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-141500-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST THU JAN 13 2005

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEA 13 FT.

$$

PKZ140-141500-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST THU JAN 13 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...ELSEWHERE NE WIND 
15 KT. SEAS 10 FT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...ELSEWHERE 3 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEA 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-141500-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST THU JAN 13 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1130 AM AST THU JAN 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  FINER RESOLUTION MODELS
FORECAST A BIT STRONGER TROUGH WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.  THESE
MODELS...THE ETA AND MESO ETA...APPEAR TO BE ACCOUNTING FOR SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THEN ROTATING
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.  THIS SOLUTION LOOKS
REASONABLE AND IS PREFERRED AS IT EXPLAINS THE SNOW SPREADING NORTH
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE RICH TRAJECTORY
AT LOW LEVELS OVERRUNNING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.

EAST OF THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW IS OVERRUNNING
A DEEP LAYER OF ARCTIC AIR RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER
COOK INLET.  THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT THE SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN END FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY.

THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE
EXPECT RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY...KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHERN COOK INLET
WITH SNOW TO THE NORTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY PKZ140 180 185
         GALE    PKZ150 155 170 172 175 176 180 185 410

RHH JAN 05