Small Craft Advisory 412, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SUN MAY 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...

ON THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE STATE WE HAVE A TROUGH FROM
FORT YUKON TO BRISTOL BAY WITH A WEAK CENTER IN BRISTOL BAY AND
ANOTHER NEAR EAGLE. A WEAK RIDGE IS REBUILDING ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD EXTENDED INTO ANCHORAGE BY THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH A STRONGER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS NORTHERLY COLD FLOW CONTINUES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER WESTERN CANADA WITH
THE STRONG TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. SOME
CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY 60 HOURS WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THE WESTERN CANADIAN RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. THAT PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH 120 HOURS
PER THE GFS.

MODELS...THE NAM...GFS AND UKMET ARE IN LINE WITH THE BIG PICTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. IN THE EAST THE FINER DETAILS LEAN TOWARD
THE NAM WITH THE BEST FORECAST SOLUTION AND THE GFS WEST OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.

FORECAST...IN THE WEST OFF THE MAINLAND THE NORTH FLOW AND SHOWERY
REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH
THE STRONG NORTH PACIFIC JET ALL THE MAJOR STORMS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE GULF OF ALASKA REMAINS AS THE DISSIPATION AREA OF THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOWS WITH EACH LOW THAT ENTERS WILL SLOWLY FALL APART
OVER THE GULF. MOST OF THE ACTION REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
AND INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. A RIDGE IS BUILDING ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY BRING THE WINDS BACK UP FOR THE GAP WIND AREAS
OF THE CHUGACH. ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY A
STRONG EASTERLY WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH. THIS WAVE COULD KICK
OFF SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE SETS UP FOR THE COPPER BASIN LATE
ON MONDAY AND MOVES INTO THE AND MOVES INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ON
TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

PROTON MAY 05