Small Craft Advisory 411, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SAT MAY 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH 120 HOURS
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE STATE. THE SURFACE FEATURES CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
GULF COAST. IN THE BERING SEA REGION AND ALONG THE ALEUTIANS NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. IN THE INTERIOR A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

IN THE EAST WE ARE WATCHING A WAVE RACING ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL THIS EVENING.
THIS COULD BRING A GOOD ROUND OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH CENTRAL. OTHERWISE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF SOUTH CENTRAL PRETTY
ISOLATED IN NATURE.

THE MODELS TODAY...THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE IN THE WEST
AND ON THE FEATURES MOVING UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE ETA HAS THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE GULF OF ALASKA...NORTH GULF COAST AND THE INTERIOR
REGIONS. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED...AFTER EACH WAVE MOVES
AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND BRINGS
GAP WINDS INTO KNIK VALLEY...PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM
REGIONS. THE ETA HAS SHOWN THIS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND HAS
VERIFIED BETTER THAN THE GFS WITH THOSE SYSTEMS.

FIRE WEATHER...IN SOUTH CENTRAL EACH AFTERNOON WE APPROACH RED FLAG
LEVELS WITH RH BELOW 40 PERCENT AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH. THIS IS
THE CASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WARNINGS AND WAIT
FOR THIS CLOUD BAND/WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST. IT IF IT
CONTINUES ON ITS CURRENT RATE AND TRACK WOULD MOVE OVER THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL AROUND 6 PM. THIS WOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES DOWN AND HOLD THE
RH ABOVE 40 PERCENT. IF THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES AND WE STAY MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER THE REGION WE COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. WE WILL HOLD OFF TILL ISSUANCE TIME TO WATCH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NORTH GULF COAST WAVE BEFORE MAKING THE CALL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...185.
      HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

PROTON MAY 05