Small Craft Advisory 407, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT FRI MAY 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THE REMAINDER OF THE OLD UPPER RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE
TODAY AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH 120 HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FACTOR FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST DOMAIN AND WILL AFFECT THE
WESTERN DOMAIN.

ON THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SHOULD CROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. BETWEEN THE LOWS IS A WEAK RIDGE WHICH IS CREATING A MINOR
WIND PROBLEM FOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

MODELS...MODEL PREFERENCE IS BASED ON THE DIFFERENT SYSTEMS TODAY.
THE LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE BY THE GFS WITH POSITION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE SYSTEMS IN THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF SEEM BEST HANDLED BY THE UKMET WHICH THE
ETA FOLLOWS ALONG PRETTY CLOSE WITH. WILL SIDE WITH THE UKMET/ETA AND
BRING A SURFACE LOW TO MIDDLETON ISLAND BY 54 HOURS. THE INTERIOR
WILL KEEP THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS
LOOKS BETTER IN THE WEST KEEPING NORTH FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA WITH
VERY COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. THE JET SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CHAIN KEEPING THE NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

FIRE WEATHER...FOR THE GAPS OF THE CHUGACH TODAY WE ARE LOOKING AT A
BORDERLINE SITUATION FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. IN THE MAT VALLEY
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BEHIND WITH CLOUDY SKIES...HOWEVER THE
LATEST SAT PIX SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WHICH COULD BRING
HEATING TO THE SURFACE TO DRY OUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
MIX DOWN THE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE
MID LEVEL OVERCAST HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY AND THE NOSE OF
THE NORTH GULF COAST RIDGE SEEMS TO BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE ARM.
THE GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE SHOWING UP OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA TODAY
INSTEAD. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND WAIT. A CLEARING PATCH IS GROWING
OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND HINTS OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL COULD
BRING TEMPS UP ENOUGH AND ANY MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE COULD BRING THE
GUSTY WINDS UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PUT THE RED FLAG INTO A
HOLDING PATTERN AND SEE HOW THE AFTERNOON DEVELOPS BEFORE MAKING ANY
DRASTIC MOVES FOR THE BOWL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 2B 3A.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 101 111.

PROTON MAY 05