Small Craft Advisory 353, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1115 AM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - THE STORM THAT ROARED THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA
YESTERDAY IS ON ITS WAY NORTH TO DISSIPATE SHORT OF THE POLE. THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A MAJOR UPPER LOW CENTER OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND
THIS MORNING WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -20C RANGE FOR MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA. THE JET IS SSW AROUND 125 KT FROM 35N OVER COOK INLET TO THE
NORTH END OF THE ALCAN. THIS IS A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE BUT MOST IS
FOCUSED ON PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THAT IS WHERE THE FRONT HAS STALLED
WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE 1006 MB NEAR 48N 155W AT 18Z. THERE REMAINS A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF BAJA AND THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE PANHANDLE.
THE SURFACE HIGH CELL IS 1036 MB ROUGHLY ALONG 140W.

AER FORECASTS - LETS NOT DROP THE WIND TOO QUICK. THERE WILL BE AN
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AT THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RUNS NORTH TONIGHT AND
MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIP DUE TO THE
FIREHOSE AIMED AT PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. AFTER MIDDAY SATURDAY THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SW WITH SHORTWAVES BRUSHING BY TO THE WEST. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS LOOK VERY INTERESTING. A 580 UPPER HIGH
IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH GULF BY 12Z WED ON BOTH THE
GFS-190 AND ECMWF. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCK SETTING UP
SO LOOK FOR DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS MID WEEK AND WELL BEYOND.

ALU FORECASTS - DITTO ON THE WIND. SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKS LIKE
SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT. THE NEXT
SYSTEM IS ALREADY DEVELOPING RAPIDLY SW OF SHEMYA AROUND 979 MB WITH
SOME UPPER SUPPORT. ALL HEMIS MODELS AGREE THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY 12Z SUN IN THE LOWER 980S WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE PRECEEDING IT. THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE BERING
SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THIS ONE WILL BE AT LEAST GALE FORCE. AFTER
THAT ALL BERING LOWS WILL PUT BRAKES ON DUE TO THE BLOCK TO THE EAST
AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY AS OF 11 AM
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101.
         WIND ADVISORY 111 125 141 151 155 161 187 191.
MARINE...GALES 120 125 130 132 160 172 175 176 180 185.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC APR 05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
330 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 30 N UNALASKA           54.37N 166.51W
04/21/2005  0 MPH            PKZ170             AK   AIRPLANE PILOT

            NORTH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTED TO 78 MPH AT CAPE KOVRIZHKA.

&&

STEPETIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
331 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST COLD BAY                55.22N 162.74W
04/21/2005  0 MPH                               AK   ASOS

            SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTED TO 79 MPH AT COLD BAY AIRPORT.

&&

STEPETIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
333 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 30 N UNALASKA           54.37N 166.51W
04/21/2005  0 MPH            PKZ170             AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            NORTH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTED TO 78 MPH AT CAPE KOVRIZHKA.

&&

STEPETIN