Gale Warning 489, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 230030 CCB
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

ADDED SYNOPSIS.

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY
AND WEAKENS. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO ADAK SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A PRESSURE OF 982 MB.
$$

PKZ150-231400-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231400-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-231400-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-231400-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-231400-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ170-231400-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-231400-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231400-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
26 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-231400-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY LATE MORNING. WIND
DIMINISHING TO S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231400-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 INCREASING TO NE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 26 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231400-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-231400-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT FRI APR 22 2005

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 22 AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT THU APR 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - 964 MB MONDO STORM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL PASS JUST E OF UNALASKA AROUND NOON. A MAJOR UPPER
LOW SUPPORTS THIS STORM AS PART OF A 5-WAVE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE
ALONG 150W AT 12Z WAS MITIGATED BY A CUTOFF LOW OFF KSFO. SEVERAL
SPIRAL WRAPS ON THE OCCLUDED FRONT SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS MATURE.
THE JET AT 250 MB IS SSW APPROXIMATELY ALONG 165W THIS MORNING
BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE AKPENN. THE CORE SPEED IS AROUND 150KT
NEAR 41N 165W. THE CIRRUS SHIELD IS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FROM THE SW WITH LOTS OF RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

AER FORECASTS - THE GFS-190 IS PREFERRED AS THE DEEPEST MODEL WITH
THE STORM WHICH WILL SET UP LOTS OF WIND AND A DANDY CHINOOK FOR
ANCHORAGE. WE EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING FOR THE COOK INLET AREA
BUT A LONG FETCH FIRE HOSE FOR THE EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO SAT
PLUS WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB FOR EXTRA LIFT.

ALU FORECASTS - DITTO ON THE GFS-190 OUT WEST EXCEPT THAT THE MODEL
PROBABLY HAS OVERDONE THE SIZE OF THE DRY SLOT. THIS IS A WARM CORE
SYSTEM WITH P-TYPE AS RAIN EXCEPT PERHAPS THE PRIBILOFS. WE UPDATED
FOR MORE WIND AROUND UNALASKA AS THE LOW KICKS OUT. ONE WORRY IS ENUF
WIND FORECASTED FOR THE LAND STATIONS ALONG THE SW COAST. METHINKS
CAPE NEWENHAM WILL SHOW NEAR WARNING WIND 70 MPH. THE TRACK LOOKS
CERTAIN TO NUNIVAK ISLAND WEAKENING TO 974 MB BY 12Z FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 181 185.
MARINE...HURC 170. STORM 138 155 160 165 180.
         GALES 130 132 140 150 171 172 179 185.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC APR 05