Small Craft Advisory 35, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 111245
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE JAN 11 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF
COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-120300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST TUE JAN 11 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-120300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST TUE JAN 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-120300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST TUE JAN 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-120300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST TUE JAN 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-120300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST TUE JAN 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-120300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST TUE JAN 11 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-120300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST TUE JAN 11 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-120300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST TUE JAN 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 10 KTS. 
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 10 KTS.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KTS. SEAS 5
FT. FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-120300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST TUE JAN 11 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1130 AM AST MON JAN 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - THE MAJOR UPPER HIGH THAT IS EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING FOR OUR
GIGANTIC FORECAST AREA HAS AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS EXTENDING FURTHER
INTO SIBERIA AND SUPPORTING A 1053 MB HIGH CELL THERE. AT 12Z THERE
REMAINED A 1012 MB LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF. THIS HAS SET UP A STRONG
SURFACE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE N GULF COAST. THE WNW JET AT 250 MB
IS SLOWLY MOVING OVER ANCHORAGE THANKS TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT
PERSISTS NEAR BANKS ISLAND. A VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET BEGINS OVER
EGYPT AND OVER THE N PACIFIC 30-35N WITH AN EXIT NEAR HAWAII THEN
PICKS UP AGAIN INTO CALIFORNIA. THE CORE SPEED SOUTH OF JAPAN IS 160
KT AS PER PIREPS. THIS SUPPORTS A STRONG UPPER CENTER NEAR SAKHLIN
ISL WITH A SURFACE COMPLEX IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

EAST FORECASTS - COLD AIR AND MIXING HAS BEEN A REAL PROBLEM SO FAR
IN HITTING THE DETAILS OF THE FORECASTS. ONE HAS TO FORECAST STRONGER
SURFACE AND GAP WINDS IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS GRADIENT AND THE JET
OVER IT. WE WILL HOLD ONTO ALL OF THIS WIND AND TEMP CONTRAST THROUGH
TUE. BY 18Z THU THE CURVED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW FOR KODIAK. THE GFS-190 INSISTS
THAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 00Z SAT BUT THE ECMWF SEZ THAT THE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS.
FORECASTING A LONGER LASTING UPPER RIDGE IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO
BUT REAL DIFFICULT TO PUT INTO THE FIELDS FOR IFPS.

WEST FORECASTS - OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS FOR THE MAINLAND
AREAS AND WILL HOLD THROUGH TUE. THE GFS-190 DEVELOPS A 992 MB LOW
NEAR ADAK 00Z WED WHICH IS PROBABLY OK WITH A WARM FRONT ALMOST TO
KODIAK. BECAUSE THE ARCTIC HIGH PERSISTS THE STRONG SURFACE PRES
GRADIENT IS REMAINING ABOVE 60N. YOU HAVE TO BE THINKING ABOUT
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST ONCE THE LOW BECOME 986 MB NEAR
55N 176W AND THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY BY 00Z THU. THE
12Z GFS-190 PROMISES A LOW IN THE 960S NEAR ATKA BY 12Z SAT BUT YOU
GOTTA SEE IF THE UPPER RIDGE KICKS OUT FIRST OR PERSISTS.

AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 135. WIND ADVSRY 101 131 155.
MARINE...GALES 14. HVY FRZ SPRAY 8 14.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC JAN 05