Small Craft Advisory 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 101811 AAA
CWFAER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
900 AM AST MON JAN 10 2005

UPDATED ALL AREAS 

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1013 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT INTENSIFIES TO 1006 MB MON
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR SITKA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-110300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
900 AM AST MON JAN 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TUE..

.TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY BEGINNING TONIGHT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-110300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
900 AM AST MON JAN 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY BEGINNING TONIGHT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-110300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
900 AM AST MON JAN 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...NORTH WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF
BAYS AND PASSES. FREEZING SPRAY BEGINNING TONIGHT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-110300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
900 AM AST MON JAN 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TUE...

.TODAY THROUGH TUE...WEST WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY 
STARTING TONIGHT.  
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-110300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
900 AM AST MON JAN 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TUE...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY STARTING TONIGHT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-110300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
900 AM AST MON JAN 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT TODAY THROUGH TUE MORNING...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-110300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
900 AM AST MON JAN 10 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-110300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
900 AM AST MON JAN 10 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-110300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
900 AM AST MON JAN 10 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH THU ..NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN JAN 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - THE MONDO BLOCKING HIGH AFFECTING ALL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA
HAS TWO RIDGES THAT HAVE INCREASED IN AMPLITUDE: ONE WELL INTO
SIBERIA AND THE OTHER OVER NW CANADA. THE HIGH CENTER IS AROUND 50N
160W AT 12Z. THE JET IS INTERESTING BECAUSE A DEEP UPPER LOW IS NEAR
BANKS ISL. AT 250 MB 12Z THE CORE IS ALREADY 115 KT AS PER PAOT RAOB
WHICH IS UNDERDONE ON THE 12Z MODEL INITIALS. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
FOR THE MAINLAND AREAS AND THE FOG IN ANCHORAGE IS GONE TANX TO SOME
LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR EVER SO SLIGHT
MIXING...BUT FOG JUST CAME INTO KENAI. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS
AN ARCTIC DRYLINE THAT HAS MOVED PAST CANTWELL INTO ZONE 145. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED WHICH IS THE BEGINNING OF THE COLD ADVECTION. OUT WEST
THE OLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO AROUND 172W AS PER GOES IMAGERY. THE N
ADVANCE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS MEETING A 1056 SURFACE
HIGH CELL OVER N SIBERIA. A 990 MB LOW IS JUST OFF KAMCHATKA WITH A
SECONDARY AROUND 997 MB NEAR 45N 180 AT 17Z.

EASTERN FORECASTS - IT IS CERTAIN THAT TEMPERATURES ARE IN A COOLING
TREND FOR ALL MAINLAND AREAS AS THE COLD ADVECTION ADVANCES. THE
COOLING WILL BE AIDED BY A FASTER THE WESTERLY JET OVER ANCHORAGE
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND SUSPECT THAT THE SPEEDS ARE UNDERDONE DUE
TO THE INITIAL PROBLEM MENTIONED ABOVE. OUTFLOW GAP WINDS WILL BE A
PROBLEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE MARINE FORECASTS. DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR
UPPER LOW OFF KAMCHATKA BY MID WEEK IS SUPPOSED TO BREAK DOWN OUR
BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE ON EARLIER GFS-190 RUNS. METHINKS THAT THE NEW
12Z GFS RUN WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER IS CORRECT.

WESTERN FORECASTS - THE REAL DEAL FOR MAINLAND AREAS IS OFFSHORE
FLOW. FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THE GFS-190 IS
FORECASTING SOME GALES ESPECIALLY WHEN THE OLD FRONT MOVES UP TOWARD
ST MATTHEW ISL THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN COMPLEX IN
THE WESTERN BERING SEA BUT THE LOWS GET DEEPER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
UNDER THE SUPPORT OF THE DEVELOPING MAJOR UPPER LOW MID WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY 131 135 191. DENSE FOG ADV THIS MORNING 121.
MARINE...GALES 12B 13A 14. HVY FRZ SPRAY 8 14.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC JAN 05