Small Craft Advisory 343, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM HEADING TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA...

.DISCUSSION...

...HEMISPHERIC...
4 WAVE PATTERN WITH ANCHOR LOW NEAR THE POLE AND WESTERN TWO THIRDS
OF AOR UNDER A COOL TROUGH.

...AT THE SURFACE...
MAIN ACTION IS OUT WEST AS A TWO LOWS REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. FURTHER INLAND SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL IN MANY
LOCATIONS FROM SAINT PAUL EASTWARD. WINDS ARE STRONGEST NEAR THE
FRONT WITH STATIONS REPORTING GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH.

IN THE EAST...RADAR RETURNS STILL REMAINING ACTIVE WITH MOISTURE
BEING PICKED UP FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF ZONE 101. LARGE ARRAY OF STATIONS IN THE MATSU VALLEY REPORTING
SNOW WHILE AREAS AROUND THE SOUND ARE MOSTLY RAIN.

...FOR THE FORECAST...
GENERAL BLOCK OF MOISTURE IN THE EAST AND THE WEST WILL DECREASE AS
MOISTURE POOL FROM THE SOUTH IS MARKEDLY REDUCED. ALL FOUR MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH OUT
WEST ALONG WITH THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE BASE. BY THURSDAY THE
HEIGHT ON THE GFS BEGINS TO PART WAYS WITH THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND
GOES MUCH DEEPER. THIS ESPECIALLY BECOME APPARENT BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE GFS SHOWS IT AT 509 WHILE THE ETA GOES WITH 514 AND THE UKMET
INDICATES 521. GFS CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
RUN TO RUN AND WITH ALL MODELS RECENTLY NOT MAKING THE LOWS STRONG OR
DEEP ENOUGH, THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CANDIDATE. IN ADDITION, A
130 KT JET CORE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
ALLOWING THE LOW TO BE IN THE FAVORED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT.

GOING WITH THE GFS WILL BRING A 965 MB LOW UP TO DUTCH HARBOR BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GALES AND SOME STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM. 925 AND 850 WIND PROGS ALL HAVE A CORE OF
80 MPH OR HIGHER JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HIGH WIND
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALASKA PENINSULA LOCATIONS FROM SAND POINT
EAST AS 80 MPH WINDS OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD MEKORYUK BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF COOL AIR TO BE TAPED INTO FROM THE BERING SEA AND NORTHER PACIFIC,
THE LOW PRESSURE VALUES LOOK JUSTIFIED.

IN THE EAST...THE WEATHER WILL ENTER A DRIER PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
IMPRESSIVE STORM OUT WEST WILL SPREAD MORE MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN
SIDE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST
CAUSING THE ANCHORAGE TO CORDOVA PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 181
MARINE...STORMS 5B 12A 15  GALES 3B 3C 5A 6A 6B 8 12A1 12B
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

BELL APR 05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1248 PM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 PM     SNOW             CANTWELL                63.37N 148.92W
04/19/2005  8.0 INCH                            AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION IN CANTWELL ESTIMATED 8-10
            INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE LAST NIGHT. BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
            159-196, AN ESTIMATED 16 INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS FALLEN
            DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. NORTHWARD, BETWEEN MILE
            MARKER 221 AND MCKINLEY PARK, AN ESTIMATED 12 INCHES OF
            NEW SNOW HAS FALLEN. AT THE TIME OF THE OBSERVATION, IT
            WAS REPORTED TO BE WINDY.

&&

AB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
127 PM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     SNOW             20 NNW TALKEETNA        62.60N 150.33W
04/19/2005  8.0 INCH                            AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            THE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LOCATED AT MILE 121 ON
            THE PARKS HIGHWAY ESTIMATED 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE IT
            BEGAN SNOWING YESTERDAY. NORTH OF MILE 134, AN ESTIMATED
            16 TO 18 INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS FALLEN. AT THE TIME OF
            THE OBSERVATION, THERE WAS NO WIND AND SNOW WAS FALLING
            STEADY BUT LIGHT.

&&

AB