Small Craft Advisory 342, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 191549 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
740 AM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

UPDATED AREAS 2B, 2C AND 2C4.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 998 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 60 NM NW OF KENAI AND
DISSIPATE TUE EVENING. A 1003 MB LOW 120 NM SW OF KODIAK CITY TUE
EVENING WILL MOVE ONSHORE 70 NM NW OF KENAI WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-200200-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
740 AM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200200-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-200200-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
740 AM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-200200-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
740 AM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FOOT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-200200-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200200-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200200-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200200-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200200-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 192252
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1002 MB LOW 440 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL DISSIPATE 200 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK TUE NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF THU.
$$

PKZ120-201400-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-201400-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-201400-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-201400-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-201400-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-201400-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201400-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-201400-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-201400-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE APR 19 2005

...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM HEADING TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA...

.DISCUSSION...

...HEMISPHERIC...
4 WAVE PATTERN WITH ANCHOR LOW NEAR THE POLE AND WESTERN TWO THIRDS
OF AOR UNDER A COOL TROUGH.

...AT THE SURFACE...
MAIN ACTION IS OUT WEST AS A TWO LOWS REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. FURTHER INLAND SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL IN MANY
LOCATIONS FROM SAINT PAUL EASTWARD. WINDS ARE STRONGEST NEAR THE
FRONT WITH STATIONS REPORTING GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH.

IN THE EAST...RADAR RETURNS STILL REMAINING ACTIVE WITH MOISTURE
BEING PICKED UP FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF ZONE 101. LARGE ARRAY OF STATIONS IN THE MATSU VALLEY REPORTING
SNOW WHILE AREAS AROUND THE SOUND ARE MOSTLY RAIN.

...FOR THE FORECAST...
GENERAL BLOCK OF MOISTURE IN THE EAST AND THE WEST WILL DECREASE AS
MOISTURE POOL FROM THE SOUTH IS MARKEDLY REDUCED. ALL FOUR MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH OUT
WEST ALONG WITH THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE BASE. BY THURSDAY THE
HEIGHT ON THE GFS BEGINS TO PART WAYS WITH THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND
GOES MUCH DEEPER. THIS ESPECIALLY BECOME APPARENT BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE GFS SHOWS IT AT 509 WHILE THE ETA GOES WITH 514 AND THE UKMET
INDICATES 521. GFS CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
RUN TO RUN AND WITH ALL MODELS RECENTLY NOT MAKING THE LOWS STRONG OR
DEEP ENOUGH, THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CANDIDATE. IN ADDITION, A
130 KT JET CORE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
ALLOWING THE LOW TO BE IN THE FAVORED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT.

GOING WITH THE GFS WILL BRING A 965 MB LOW UP TO DUTCH HARBOR BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GALES AND SOME STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM. 925 AND 850 WIND PROGS ALL HAVE A CORE OF
80 MPH OR HIGHER JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HIGH WIND
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALASKA PENINSULA LOCATIONS FROM SAND POINT
EAST AS 80 MPH WINDS OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD MEKORYUK BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF COOL AIR TO BE TAPED INTO FROM THE BERING SEA AND NORTHER PACIFIC,
THE LOW PRESSURE VALUES LOOK JUSTIFIED.

IN THE EAST...THE WEATHER WILL ENTER A DRIER PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
IMPRESSIVE STORM OUT WEST WILL SPREAD MORE MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN
SIDE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST
CAUSING THE ANCHORAGE TO CORDOVA PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 181
MARINE...STORMS 5B 12A 15  GALES 3B 3C 5A 6A 6B 8 12A1 12B
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

BELL APR 05