Small Craft Advisory 338, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN APR 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...HEMISPHERIC...
6 WAVE PATTERN WITH ANCHOR LOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH POLE. AOR IS
MOSTLY UNDER A TROUGH WITH -20 TEMPS AT 850 NEAR MCGRATH.

...AT THE SURFACE...
MAIN LOW IS OUT WEST SOUTH OF ADAK. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
LARGE SECTION OF STATE IS NEARLY CLOUD FREE. TEMPERATURE RANGE IS
IMPRESSIVE TODAY RANGING FROM -20 UP TO +40 AT 4 AM. COLDEST AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE FROM SIBERIA.

...FOR THE FORECAST...
ALL MAIN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVELS. ALL FOUR
KEEP ONE LOW OVER THE STATE AND ANOTHER IN AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. AT THE SURFACE ALL SOLUTIONS BRING THE 986 MB
LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS EAST. GFS AND UKMET BOTH HAVE A LOW FORM
AHEAD OF THE LOW ALONG A TROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE MESOETA IS
SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH AND DOES NOT DEVELOP A LOW. PREFER THE
GFS/UKMET HANDLING OF THIS AND WOULD EXPECT A LOW TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE BY THIS POINT. COLD AIR NORTHWEST OF AOR WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTH AND EAST AS FAR AS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

...FURTHER OUT...
COOLER AIR REMAINS MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN AOR WHILE WARMER AIR STAYS
TO THE EAST. 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS STUBBORN OVER WESTERN ALASKA FROM
BETHEL TO ADAK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 5B 6B 12A 12B 13A 13B 15
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 6A 15
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

BELL APR 05