Small Craft Advisory 307, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS BUCKLING TODAY AS
THE ALEUTIAN LOW TRANSLATES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A CUT OFF
FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW PUSHES OFF
NORTHWEST CHINA ACROSS NORTHERN JAPAN AND INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL AIDE IN DEVELOPING A RIDGE BETWEEN
THE SYSTEMS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 84 HOURS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ANOTHER
OVER THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

SURFACE...THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WEAK LOW CENTERS CONTINUE TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND HIGH CLOUDS INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. OUT WEST PURE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE LATE
WINTER SNOW SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...FREEZING SPRAY AND LOW
CONDITIONS OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS REGIONS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWS AND WOBBLES AROUND THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS...THE BIG THREE ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE ALIGNMENT WITH THE SYSTEM
BIGGEST TROUBLE SEEMS TO BE WITH THE DEPTH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
THE NAM IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE GFS/UKMET HAVING THE STRONGER CENTRAL
PRESSURE. THE TREND OF LATE HAS BEEN THE GFS AND SEE NO REASON TO
CHANGE THE THINKING WITH THIS PACKAGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...170.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

PROTON APR 05