Gale Warning 461, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 092321
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT APR 9 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 215 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO 390 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MON AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 999 MB.
$$

PKZ120-101400-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SAT APR 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-101400-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SAT APR 9 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-101400-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SAT APR 9 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...NORTH WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-101400-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SAT APR 9 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-101400-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT APR 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-101400-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SAT APR 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-101400-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SAT APR 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-101400-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SAT APR 9 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-101400-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SAT APR 9 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS BUCKLING TODAY AS
THE ALEUTIAN LOW TRANSLATES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A CUT OFF
FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW PUSHES OFF
NORTHWEST CHINA ACROSS NORTHERN JAPAN AND INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL AIDE IN DEVELOPING A RIDGE BETWEEN
THE SYSTEMS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 84 HOURS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ANOTHER
OVER THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

SURFACE...THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WEAK LOW CENTERS CONTINUE TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND HIGH CLOUDS INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. OUT WEST PURE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE LATE
WINTER SNOW SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...FREEZING SPRAY AND LOW
CONDITIONS OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS REGIONS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWS AND WOBBLES AROUND THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS...THE BIG THREE ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE ALIGNMENT WITH THE SYSTEM
BIGGEST TROUBLE SEEMS TO BE WITH THE DEPTH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
THE NAM IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE GFS/UKMET HAVING THE STRONGER CENTRAL
PRESSURE. THE TREND OF LATE HAS BEEN THE GFS AND SEE NO REASON TO
CHANGE THE THINKING WITH THIS PACKAGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...170.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

PROTON APR 05