Small Craft Advisory 299, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED APR 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...

A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS TRACKING TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND
GENERATING STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. SEVERAL
SHOWERS PERSIST OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLY ON THE EASTERN LEE SLOPES.
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR PORTAGE AND TURNAGAIN ARM
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND THE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE KNIK VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL.. AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL KEEP A MAINLY SHOWERY REGIME IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE LOWS ROTATE NEAR THE
NORTH GULF COAST.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW IS PUSHING THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS FURTHER WEST.  THE TEMPERATURE IN KING SALMON...FOR
EXAMPLE... REMAINED STEADY OVERNIGHT AND IS 11 DEGREES WARMER THAN
24 HOURS AGO.  THIS WILL BRING MUCH ANTICIPATED RELIEF TO THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD KUSKOKWIM DELTA... AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 20S TODAY. WARM AIR OVER RUNNING CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW FOR
THE WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. THIS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
LATER TODAY.

A LARGE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN... WILL CONTINUE TO BRING EAST GALES TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
BERING SEA.  WESTERLY GALES...IN CONTRAST... CAN BE FOUND ON THE
PACIFIC SIDE OF THE CHAIN.  RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH TOMORROW...
WHILE SPREADING EAST INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT.  A TRIPLE
POINT LOW WILL FORM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT... AND
MOVE INTO THE GULF TOMORROW.  MODELS DO NOT EXACTLY AGREE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW IN THE GULF... BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM AGREE THE
MAIN CENTER SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND AS IT PROGRESSES EAST.

EXTENDED FORECAST... THE GFS MODEL HITS AT THE NEXT LOW OF
SIGNIFICANCE IMPACTING THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. COUPLE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING... GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY PRECIPITATION.
DUE TO THE WARM AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW... THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION WILL LIKELY SEE A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN... OR ALL RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM.  UNFORTUNATELY THE NORTH FLOW COULD BRING A SHORT
RETURN TO THE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
WESTERN ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 2B 12A 12B 13A 13B
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 6A
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMF APR 05