Small Craft Advisory 291, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1057 AM ADT SUN APR 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OVER SEWARD PENINSULA IS QUITE COLD WITH NOME
500 MB 12Z TEMP AT -41C. SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA
ARE BELOW ZERO THIS SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG, LIKE AROUND KING SALMON AND EGEGIK. AREAS EAST
OF THE ALASKA RANGE SEEING MORE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH ALSO SOME SUN MIXED IN. FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AT KODIAK AND OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS. AREA OF MOISTURE DRIFTING EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND APPEARS ON
SAT IMAGERY TO BE ENHANCING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. MIDDLETON RADAR
SHOWS WEAK ECHOES DRIFTING NE SO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND MAY GET SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
UPPER LOW STILL FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD WITH THE MAIN CENTER OVER
MARINE AREA 5A AND A TROF AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST FLOW AT
THE HIGHER LEVELS WHICH MEANS ARCTIC AIR WILL STAY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RANGE WITH THE MAIN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.

SOME MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MAY SEEP INTO COOK INLET SUSITNA VALLEY
TONIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOWER MINIMUMS MONDAY MORNING THAN WHAT
WAS SEEN THIS MORNING. THIS ALSO MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOWS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE
TRIES TO WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

STILL FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION OF THE DEVELOPING LOW NOW AROUND 48N
160W. 974 LOW CENTER MOVES TO 55N 145W MON NIGHT. IF CORRECT GALES
AND POSSIBLE MINIMUM STORMS ARE A GOOD BET FOR MARINE AREAS 3A AND
2B. SNOW AND WIND THAT BEGIN ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND MON EVENING
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IF THE TEMPERATURES STAY COLD ENOUGH. TUESDAY NIGHT
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND TEMPERATUERS RISE AS THE LOW CENTER BACKS TO
THE EAST SIDE OF THE ISLAND.

SNOWY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT LOOK FOR A BREAK AS A
RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING ADVANCES EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING MAX GALES BACK INTO AREA 13 BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAKENED FRONT REACHING UNMAK ISLAND WED EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MARINE...GALE AREAS 5B..12A..13.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

PERCY APR 05