Brisk Wind Advisory 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1005 AM PM AST SAT APR 2 2005

PARTLY SUNNY SATURDAY THEN AN INCREASING THREAT OF SNOW SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL ELONGATE SOUTHWARD
TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT EAST OF 160W WILL OPEN UP THE GULF AND GIVE AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES MAINLY FROM THE ALASKA RANGE EASTWARD,
AND ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA TO YAKUTAT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT FROM TANANA SOUTHWARD WITH
CLOUDS ENHANCING ALONG THE AK RANGE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. LIGHT
SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT MCGRATH, STONY RIVER LODGE AND EVEN
SKWENTNA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY SHOW UP ALONG THE PARKS HIGHWAY
BY THIS EVENING FROM WILLOW TO CANTWELL. THIS AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND AS UPPER DYNAMICS IMPROVE AND BY SUNDAY
EVENING THERE WILL BE A FAIR CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FROM NORTHERN COOK
INLET AND THE MAT/SU VALLEYS SOUTHEAST ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO
CORDOVA WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS POINT AMOUNTS WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWING GFS MODEL WITH DEVELOPING STORM CURRENTLY SOUTH
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW DEEPENS TO 970 MB AND MOVES TO 48N
145W BY MONDAY EVENING. FROM THIS POINT ON MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AND MOVE IT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT THEN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MAY
SEE MORE SNOW DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OUT WEST..THE ARCTIC FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS LATTER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING FOR INCREASED SNOW AND WIND AGAIN THERE AS
COLDER AIR FOLLOWS IN BEHIND. THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIANS WILL
REMAIN IN A BLUSTERY AND SNOWY MODE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. A
BREAK AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SHOULD QUIET THINGS DOWN LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT GALES AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS
SWEEP ACROSS MARINE AREA 13 WEST OF ADAK. STRONG JET PROGRESSES FRONT
EASTWARD WITH WIND RAIN AND SNOW REACHING NIKOLSKI AND UNMAK ISLAND
BY TUE EVENING. SNOWY AND BLUSTERY PATTERN CONTINUES OUT IN THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH A HINT OF A BREAK
BY THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE AREAS 12 AND 13.

PERCY APR 05