Small Craft Advisory 265, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AST SUN MAR 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO FEED INTO
POLAR LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TOMORROW. A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AS THIS HAPPENS. THE POLAR LOW DROPS
TO NEAR BETHEL TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE KAMCHATKA UPPER LOW
IS PUSHED INTO THE BERING AND PHASES WITH THE POLAR LOW AT THIS TIME
AS WELL. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP COLD TROUGH IS THE REAL FORECAST PROBLEM.
RIGHT NOW...LEANING TOWARD THE GFS. AS A RESULT...THE LOW ON TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WILL BE A BIT FARTHER EAST
THAN THE NAM SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE MOISTURE AND CURRENT KING SALMON LOW MAKING ITS WAY
UP COOK INLET TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE CENTRAL BERING.

CURRENTLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE UPPER LOW NEAR BETHEL CONTINUES
TO PUMP MOISTURE TO POINTS EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
STAY MAINLY EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE POLAR LOW MOVES INTO
PLACEBY TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
MORNING TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW WITH SNOW OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL. THE LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY TO MOVE INTO COOK INLET TONIGHT AND
FARTHER INLAND TOMORROW WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED
MOISTURE STREAM...SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW REPLACED BY POLAR
LOW BY TUESDAY. AIR MASS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...A WEAK LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE ISLANDS THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE WAY. RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN BEHIND THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG FRONT. OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS...THE WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RIDGE TIGHTENS UP OVER THE BERING SEA AS
THE STRONG FRONT WORKS FROM SHEMYA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND HEADS INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE WITH A TROUGH BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THIS TIME SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GULF WITH THE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA BEING KNOCKED DOWN BY THE STRONG LOW OVER
KAMCHATKA AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 8 14
         GALE 5A 5B 6B 12A 12B 13B
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN MAR 05