Small Craft Advisory 264, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST SUN MAR 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS TODAY ARE THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIP
AFFECTING SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE WINDS IN THE
ALEUTIANS AND ALONG BRISTOL BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE FINER ASPECTS OF THESE
SYSTEMS. WILL GO WITH MESOETA FOR NOW ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN A LITTLE
SLOW IN PRECIP TIMING AND TOO LOW ON OVERRUNNING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. IT SEEMS TO PICK UP ON THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY
A BIT BETTER AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF AND THE ENERGY SPLITS WITH
ONE PIECE NEAR THE KENAI AND ANOTHER OUT IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BUT
WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY FORCES THE
ENERGY TO MOVE EAST. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AS THIS SERIES
OF LOWS IMPACTS THE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL BUT WITHOUT LET UP THROUGH TUE MORNING. SOME OVERRUNNING
SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY. FOUR TO SIX INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH VALDEZ AND PORTAGE
GETTING MORE AS THE LOWS TRACK BRIEFLY INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
BEFORE MOVING INLAND TODAY..TOMORROW AND TUE.

WINTER WILL COME AGAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH AN INFUSION OF CAA OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. JUST HOW LONG IT WILL LAST IS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECT THE
COLDER TEMPS TO LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE ALEUTIANS..A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A LOW THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO GALES
AND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS DUTCH HARBOR EAST TODAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 5A 5B 6B 12A 12B 13B
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 8 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW MAR 05