Small Craft Advisory 227, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE MAR 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE TRYING TO MOVE THE FRONT, ALONG THE WEST COAST, A
LITTLE TOO FAST TO THE EAST FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS AND MAY STILL BE
DOING IT. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE ON FAIR AGREEMENT THOUGH I PREFER THE
GSF MODEL TODAY.

PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE EAST SLOWLY THAN THE MODELS INDICATE.

THE STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN
MAINLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER WEDNESDAY
THEN DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TONIGHT, INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO
NORTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVE THROUGH THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES AND INTO
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WEDNESDAY.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WESNESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR THURSDAY.

A 996 MB LOW 420 MILES SOUTH OF ADAK WILL WILL MOVE TO 550 MILES
SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AND STRENGTHEN TO 987 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A 994 MB LOW OVER THE SEA OF OHKOTSK WILL MOVE TO 360 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ATTU WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE TO 350 MILES WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 1015 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA AND MATANUSKA
VALLEY ANF THE KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT AND END BY WENESDAY MORNING.

SOME RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED IN PRICE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN BUT IT WONT BE VERY HEAVY DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE
FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 13B.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 05