Small Craft Advisory 211, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AST WED MAR 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MODEL DISCUSSION...CONSENSUS IS GFS. MODEL KEEPS TONIGHTS IN COMING
GULF OF ALASKA STORM DEEPER AND MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. GFS ALSO FINE FOR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. GFS
BRINGS APPROPRIATE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO NORTH GULF OF ALASKA
MARINE AREAS WITH WINDS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA (74 MPH PLUS)
FOR NORTH GULF COASTAL PUBLIC ZONES.

UPPER LEVELS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA GETS PUSHED
EAST OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS UPPER LOW SWINGS IN FROM THE GULF ON
THURSDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IN THE GULF ALSO MOVES EAST TO BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY. MAIN UPPER LOW PERSISTS NEAR THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH 60HRS LEAVING THE MAINLAND UNDER A PREDOMINATELY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  FREEZING LEVELS WILL REACH 2,000 TO 4,000 FEET
ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE DISCUSSION...CURRENT WEATHER PROBLEMS INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN
AT SAINT PAUL, SNOW AT ILIAMNA, AND GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN CAPES OF
BRISTOL BAY. HAVE UPDATED THESE PUBLIC ZONES ACCORDINGLY WITH
ADVISORIES. ALL THIS WEATHER IS FROM A LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING
SEA NEAR UNALASKA ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE
STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL FINALLY SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AT 60HRS.

THE GULF STORM IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 550NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF LATE TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE COOK INLET LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF
ALASKA..WITH STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THE MARINE AREAS AND
WIND ADVISORIES IN THE PUBLIC ZONES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG
AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH..SPECIFICALLY ALONG KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
NORTH GULF COAST. LOOK FOR A LEAST WIND ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 2C 3B 3C 4A 5A 5B 6A 6B 12 14 BERING OFFSHORE
         STORM 3A 4
         HURRICANE FORCE 2B GULF OFFSHORE

JWP MAR 05