Small Craft Advisory 203, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
200 PM AST SUN MAR 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH
THE SEWARD PENINSULA TODAY. REX BLOCKING LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WHICH IS HOLDING UP THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVELS IN
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. ALEUTIAN UPPER LOW CONTINUES IN PLACE OVER
THE CENTRAL CHAIN. THROUGH THE 84 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD THE REX BLOCK
WEAKENS OVER ARIZONA AND IS KICKED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY THIS WILL ALLOW THE ALEUTIAN LOW TO NUDGE
EASTWARD CHANGING THE COURSE THE SYSTEMS THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN
THE STRONG JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC.

SURFACE...A 970 MB LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS EAST. THE
NEXT OF THE SERIES OF NORTH PACIFIC LOWS THEN BEGINS TO ENTER THE
PICTURE MONDAY MORNING AS IT CROSSES 50N AND CONTINUES TRACK NORTH
ALONG 155W. THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND THE
DEPTH OF THIS LOW WILL SETUP AN EVEN STRONGER GRADIENT OVER THE
KODIAK ISLAND WATERS AND GULF OF ALASKA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SHELIKOF
AND MATANUSKA GAP WIND AREAS FOR EARLY ON TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE
NORTH GULF COAST FOR POSSIBLE WIND WARNING CONDITIONS.  UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLAND IN
ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MODELS...NAM MODEL HAD SOME PROBLEMS THIS MORNING WITH INITIALIZATION
PARAMETERS AS PER NCEP DISCUSSION WILL DISREGARD 12Z NAM OUTPUT
TODAY. GFS/UKMET OUTPUT BASICALLY THE SAME FROM 00HR-72HR WILL GO
WITH GFS FOR BASIC GUIDANCE TODAY ACROSS THE TWO FORECAST DOMAINS.
THE INTERIOR WILL SEE VERY SLOW CHANGES IN THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN. MOST ACTIVE AREAS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST...KODIAK ISLAND...ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY COAST LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY/POSSIBLE WARNING LEVEL WINDS.  FEEL AT THIS POINT
THE PAST TWO SYSTEM THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WERE RUNNING HOT THAT
PLAYING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WOULD BE BEST AT THIS TIME FOR
MONDAY/S EVENT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...121 125 140 141 155 160 165 180 185
      ...STORM...120 130 132 138 150
      ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

PROTON MAR 05