Small Craft Advisory 196, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU MAR 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...DOMINATE FEATURE FOR THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES NOSING INTO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. OVER THE BERING THE PERSISTENT
ALEUTIAN LOW REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CHAIN. THROUGH THE 84 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE ALEUTIAN
LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A REX BLOCK
OVER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH 168 HOURS WITH THE GFS
MODEL. LOOK FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TREND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE
CENTRAL YUKON ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST. A MAJOR SYSTEM ABOUT 700
NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK WILL BE THE PRIMARY SYSTEM FOR BOTH FORECAST
DOMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST 84 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE
FROM IT/S CURRENT POSITION JUST SOUTH OF 50N AND SLIGHTLY WEST OF
160W TO UNALASKA BY 60 HOURS THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES UP ON THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MODELS...SYNOPTICALLY THE UKMET/NAM/GFS HOLD IN AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES. THE SYSTEM MOVING UP INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA HAS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND FIELD AT 72-84 HOURS THE
GFS AND UKMET ARE A BIT QUICKER BRINGING THE STORM FORCE WINDS INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WHERE THE NAM IS SLOWER. PREFER THE
SLOWER NAM MODEL. THE MAJOR UPPER LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE
PRIMARY JET TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD WEAKEN ANY
SURFACE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE PENINSULA AND SLOWER MOVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED. THIS GOES RIGHT ALONG WITH THE NAM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...ZONES 120 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 172 176
185
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...176 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

PROTON MAR 05