Small Craft Advisory 194, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED MAR 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS NOT PICKED
UP IN ANY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS.  IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE ABSORBED IN THE CIRCULATION OF A STRONGER LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL OF THE DAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION.  ON THU
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL THE ETA KEEPS THE PRIMARY CENTER OF A WEAKENING
GULF LOW NEAR HOMER WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST
WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THE MAIN LOW NORTH OF GULKANA.

WEATHER SYSTEM DISCUSSION.

A WEAK LOW 350 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE TO HOMER THU AND THEN DISSIPATE INLAND THU NIGHT.  THIS LOW WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST TODAY TO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT AND TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE THU.

A WEAKENING LOW NEAR UNALASKA WILL ROTATE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND GET
ABSORBED IN THE CIRCULATION OF A STRONG STORM TO THE SOUTH THU.
RAIN...SNOW AND BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT DUE THO THIS LOW.  COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PRIBILOFS
THROUGH THU.

A STRENGTHENING STORM 550 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AND
BECOME A STRONG STORM 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY FRI.  STRONG
WINDS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE ALEUTIANS...ALASKA
PENINSULA...BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH THIS
STORM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE PKZ155
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY  PKZ176 179 185 410

RHH MAR 05