Small Craft Advisory 193, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED MAR 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH
MESOETA ON THE LOWS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE GULF. THE POSITIONING OF
THE 990S LOW NEAR SEWARD BY THU MORNING SEEMS THE MORE LIKELY
SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS BRINGING IT OVER THE KNIK ARM. HOWEVER
GFS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH UKMET IN THE MID RANGE FORECAST SO WILL
TRANSITION TO A GFS SOLUTION FOR THE NEXT LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS.

THE TWO LOWS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
SCATTERED AREAS OF SNOW ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE AREAS OF FOG. RADIATION FOG MAY BE DENSE AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INLET AND KNIK ARM THIS MORNING AND
TOMORROW MORNING.

AS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVES NORTHEAST KODIAK WILL SEE
WINDS AND PRECIP PICK UP LATE THU NIGHT. WARMER TEMPS WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE CITY BUT SOME SNOW TO THE REST OF THE ISLAND.

A 980S LOW IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO
THE REGION. AS THIS LOW WEAKENS TO A TROF TONIGHT THE DEVELOPING LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE THE MOISTURE FLOW. SNOW MAY MIX
WITH RAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WAA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME
THURSDAY. GALES WILL BE PREDOMINANT WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS INTO KODIAK COASTAL WATERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 5B
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 13B 14 15
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAR 05