Small Craft Advisory 192, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST TUE MAR 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL OVERALL IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND REASONABLE
AND WILL USED IN AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES.

EAST...STRATUS OVER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE. THIS
IS NOT PICKED UP WELL WITH ETA MOS. HOWEVER...ETA 1000-850MB MOISTURE
FIELD LOOKS REASONABLE. SAT PIC SHOWS STRATUS FIELD MOVING NORTH OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF BECOMES INCREASING SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY WITH NORTHERN EXTENT ONLY TO BARREN ISLANDS/SOUTHERN COOK INLET.
PATCHY NIGHT/EARLY AM STRATUS/FOG LIKELY TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. PRESSURE
PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE GULF SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH
TONIGHT/WED. TRIPLE POINT CENTER FORMING ALONG TRAILING FRONT SOUTH
OF THE AK PEN TODAY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THU
AFTERNOON AND BRINGS A SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW. A 950S MB LOW MOVING TO
440 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK FRI AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW
TO AFFECT THE REGION.

OUT WEST...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER SOUTHWEST AK AS WEAK NORTHLY WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH
850-500MB TROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER LARGE PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AK. MODELS TEND TO INCREASE
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION OVER THE DAY OR SO..BUT
ANY SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK.
GALES OVER THE ALEUTIANS ASSOCIATED WITH 980S MB LOW SW OF PADU WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND WED AS CENTER MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 12B.

RMC MAR 05