Small Craft Advisory 188, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST MON FEB 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...
500MB...VORTEX NEAR OVER NORTON SOUND REMAINS STATIONARY AND
INTENSIFIES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CENTER WEAKENS
AND MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND TUE. SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EAST MAINLAND INCREASES TUE AND WED AS NORTON SOUND VORTEX COMES IN
PHASE WITH CENTER NEAR THE POLE AND WAVE MOVING SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE BERING SEA RIDGE IS PINCHED OFF WITH
CENTER MOVING INTO RUSSIA. WEST/EAST TROUGH SETS UP ALONG 50N FROM
KAMCHATKA TO SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE JET STREAM IS NEARLY ZONAL
AND SOUTH OF 50N TO WEST OF 160W. JET RECURVES NORTH TO EAST OF 160W.
THIS SAID...NORTH PACIFIC STORM TRACK SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE CHAIN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WILL RECURVE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

EAST...ETA/GFS MODELS REASONABLE SOLUTIONS IN SHORT TERM WITH GFS
BEST BEYOND 48 HOURS. 996 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS
MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY NORTH AND MOVE INTO THE EAST COPPER RIVER BASIN
THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE NORTH
GULF THROUGH WED AS A WEAK TRIPLE POINT MOVES NORTH. PRECIPITATION
HOLD DIMINISH TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH GULF AS LOW MOVES INLAND.
HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO WEST AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
GULF WILL HOLD THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO WED.

OUTWEST...NOT MUCH GOING ON OVER THE THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH
GENERALLY WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS. MAIN CONCERN IS FOG NEAR COASTS. 970S
MB CENTER SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVING EAST AND WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT GALES TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER
AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 12B AND 13A/B.

RMC FEB 05