Small Craft Advisory 179, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST FRI FEB 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...990S MB CENTER NEAR KODIAK IS STACKED WITH THE UPPER
CENTER AND IS THE PIVOT POINT FOR A WEAKENING LOW MOVING TOWARD THE
KENAI PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT SAT IMAGERY AND RADAR INDICATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOICATED WITH THIS CENTER OVER THE GULF
COAST AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT. KODIAK CENTER SHOULD TRACK
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SAT AND DISSIPATE SUN. ETA/MESO ETA MODELS WILL
BE USED FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA FORECAST PACKAGE.

OUT WEST...
THE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE SW MAINLAND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
AND THE GENERAL FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE. SO WOULD EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
BE RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SW
MAINLAND IS NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. LOWER 990S MB LOW
NEAR SHEMYA WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN UNDER UPPER CENTER. ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING SE TO JUST EAST OF DUTCH HARBOR IS
ELONGATING SE AND WEAKENING AS JET CARRIES TRIPLE POINT WELL SOUTH OF
THE AK PEN. DEVELOPING STORM WHICH MOVED OFF OF JAPAN THU WAS LOCATED
NEAR 38N 159E THIS MORNING WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 980 MB. THE
GFS/UKMET MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS CENTER. THE JET IN THIS
PART OF THE PACIFIC IS SOUTH OF 50N AND SHOULD CARRY IS CENTER
RAPIDLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. EXPECT WINDS WILL JUST BRUSH
THE CHAIN IS IT MOVES EAST. ANOTHER CENTER IN THIS SERIES LOWS MOVES
WELL SOUTH OF SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE MID
970S MB. THIS CENTER WILL LIKELY WEAKEN MON AND RETROGRADE NW AS JET
ELONGATES FRONTAL TROUGH SE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES AREAS 12A AND 12B

RMC FEB 05