Small Craft Advisory 177, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU FEB 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE PARENT LOW NOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND IS STACKED VERTICALLY AND
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS. A LOW NOW MOVING INTO
THE NORTH GULF COAST REGION IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED BY
THE FORECAST MODELS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MIDDLETON ISLAND
TONIGHT TO LOWER COOK INLET THEN MERGE INTO THE PARENT LOW SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND THE SOUND INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
CURRENT MODEL RUN IS TOO SLOW IN BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THIS REGION AS COMPARED TO CURRENT RADAR INFORMATION. THUS THE TIMING
OF THE EXPECTED RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE EASTERN ZONES HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED. AS THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND IN THE GULF, WE DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A THREAT OF SNOW
INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY THEN DRIFT TO JUST
EAST OF KODIAK SATURDAY. THEREFORE WE EXPECT CLOUDY WARMER CONDITIONS
WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
TO KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUT WEST WE HAVE A MODERATE STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR SHEMYA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ELONGATE
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A FRONTAL LOW FORMING AND SOUTH OF UNALASKA
FRI. AN INTENSE STORM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE
FRIDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 960 MB RANGE SAT SOUTH OF
ATKA. COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA,
EXPECT A BAND OF STRONG EAST AND NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE BERING
OFFSHORE MARINE AREA AND MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO EAST WIND OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS  SAT. THE LOW WILL TAKE AN EASTERLY
TRACK SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE SUN.

OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE BRISTOL BAY
ZONE FROM THE GULF LOW IS NOT PRODUCING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT LESS OF A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE ZONE TODAY. THE RESULTING NORTH TO EAST FLOW AROUND THE GULF
LOW COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRY CONDITIONS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
OVER THE DELTA. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG IN THE BETHEL AREA SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS THE FLOW INCREASES FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THE FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR THAT ZONE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND CALM
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THOUGH THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE COULD SEE SOME RAIN
OR SNOW ALONG THE ALEUTIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
IN FROM THE EAST AND IS PUSHED INTO THE MOUNTAINS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 12B 13AB. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14.
FIRE WEATHER...DONE.

SAM FEB 05