Small Craft Advisory 170, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AST TUE FEB 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY...THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC PUSHING A
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW REFLECTED ALONG IT NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THIS FRONT
CREATING SOME AREA OF WIND SHEAR. ALSO SEEING MANY MARINE AREAS WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS. LOTS OF STRATUS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO STAY IN SOME OF THE WESTERN AREAS AS
FORCING NOT THAT STRONG TO LIFT IT OUT. EAST OF THE ALASKA
RANGE...THE FOG WILL LIFT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...SEEING SOME DOWNSLOPE CHARACTERISTICS INLAND
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT...WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME PRECIP TO THESE AREAS. FRONT TO DIMINISH AS IT WORKS
INLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTED TO SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP ALONG THE COAST WITH THE LONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE PANHANDLE.

A STACKED LOW NEAR 50N 159W WITH A STRONG JET ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH
ALONG 145W. THIS IS WHERE THE MEAN RIDGE IS SITUATED EXTENDING FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN ALASKA. A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL FEED ALONG THE JET TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING A
COUPLE FRONTS TO THE GULF COAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. EACH WAVE TO HELP
PUSH THE LOW NORTH AND THE RIDGE AXIS EAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IN
ADDITION...HELP IN SWINGING THE STACKED LOW NORTH IS ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR 45N 155W THURSDAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPED OUT OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KAMCHATKA WILL SPIN UP INTO A SURFACE LOW
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN BEFORE WEAKENING. THE LOW FILLS
AND IS REPLACED TO THE SOUTH BY ANOTHER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
KAMCHATKA UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW TOO WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AND REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW TO ITS
SOUTH. THE REPEATED WAVES MOVING OUT OF THE KAMCHATKA LOW WEAKEN IT
TO THE POINT THAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LOW HAS FILLED A BIT WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH FROM ITSELF TO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC NEAR 40N 140W.
EACH ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL ALSO FEED INTO THE LOW OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND BUILD BACK THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTERIOR
BY SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 2B 3A 3B 3C 4
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 05