Small Craft Advisory 167, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST MON FEB 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 50N 160W WITH MANY SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TO ROTATE AROUND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THESE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO SWING THE LOW SLOWLY EAST AND NORTH. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
ALASKA TO BE KNOCKED DOWN GRADUALLY WITH THESE FEATURES. THE JET
ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH CURRENTLY NEAR 150W TO SLIDE EAST WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. EACH WAVE TO BRING A FRONT INTO THE GULF COAST ALBEIT A
BIT FARTHER EAST EACH TIME.

A STRONG LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO PUSH A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS. ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP
INTO A CLOSED NEAR 45N 165W THURSDAY BUT PROGRESS EAST FASTER THAN
THE CURRENT LOW AS THE JET IS SUPPORTING THIS LOW. THE DEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW TO PUSH THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW INTO THE GULF
AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE KAMCHATKA LOW THURSDAY AND SWINGS
THE WHOLE COMPLEX INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. A PIECE OF THIS SHORT
WAVE TO FEED INTO THE LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
TURN...A RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KICKING OUT THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR 50N 160W.
THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE BERING SEA AS ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...OCCLUDED FRONT WORKING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TODAY WITH MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS. THE FRONT TO WORK OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT WORKS NORTH THROUGH THE GULF.
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW IN THE BERING SEA DISSIPATES. THE SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STACKED SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 50N 160W WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TOMORROW. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL MOVE NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TOMORROW. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
FROM DUTCH HARBOR TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA TOMORROW AS WELL. MODERATE
TO STRONG WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES. EXPECT GALE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND THROUGH THE CHANNELED INLAND WATERS WITH THE FRONT
TOMORROW. THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT DISSIPATES TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT
WORKS INLAND NEAR THE SHELIKOF STRAIT. THE RESULTANT OCCLUDED FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO WORK INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS
MAINLY FROM THE ALASKA RANGE EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE BERING SEA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW TO PROGRESS NORTH INTO THE GULF WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
MOVING INTO THE COAST THURSDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP WITH THIS
FEATURE AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST.  BY THIS TIME...A
STRONG LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 45N 155W WITH A FRONT APPROACHING THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN FRONT TO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE BERING SEA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC TO PUSH THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OFF BY SATURDAY
EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A
STRONGER FRONT AND LOW CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND.

DOWNSLOPED AREAS OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE FRONTS
AS THEY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. BUT PRECIP CHANCE
STILL EXIST AS EACH FRONT WORKS INLAND. IN ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE
AN INCREASE IN WIND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM DURING EACH EVENT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 2B 3A 3C 4
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 05