Small Craft Advisory 161, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AST SAT FEB 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA BY TOMORROW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
BERING SEA. HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS IN THE BERING SEA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN ADDITION...COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WILL BRING SOME MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL FILL IN THE BERING SEA TOMORROW AS
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS SURFACE LOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE DIFFERENT MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND LOW. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE
UKMET AND NAM. RIGHT NOW...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE GFS. THE
RESULTANT WOULD BE FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO SHOW DIFFERING PATTERNS.
THE NAM AND UKMET MOVE A FRONT/SURFACE LOW NORTH FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THE DIFFERENCE IS MONDAY EVENING VERSUS TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FRONT
WORKING INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THEREFORE...WIND FORECASTS IN THESE AREAS MAY BE A BIT UNCERTAIN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS UNTIL THE MODELS TEND TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.

PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO WORK NORTH AND EAST WITH THE LOW TONIGHT
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALONG THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST. WINDS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING
AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL BE MODERATE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT WITH THE LOW WORKS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS
FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA MONDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT WORKS
NORTH INTO THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WORKS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS STRONG FRONT.

MODELS AGREE A BIT BETTER BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN LOW MOVING INTO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY INTO BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. BY THIS TIME...A LOW MOVES NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH
A FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 181
MARINE...STORM 5B 6A 6B 8 12A 12A1 13B 14
         GALE 5A 12B 13A 15
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 05