Brisk Wind Advisory 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 211228
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST MON FEB 21 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 989 MB LOW 130 NM N OF ATKA WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON. A
986 MB LOW 440 NM SE OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A 998 MB LOW WILL FORM 235 NM SE OF KODIAK MON
NIGHT AND MOVE TO AROUND CHIGNIK TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-220300-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 AM AST MON FEB 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-220300-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST MON FEB 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-220300-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST MON FEB 21 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-220300-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST MON FEB 21 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-220300-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST MON FEB 21 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT.
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ170-220300-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST MON FEB 21 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-220300-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST MON FEB 21 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-220300-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST MON FEB 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-220300-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST MON FEB 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-220300-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST MON FEB 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-220300-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST MON FEB 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-220300-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST MON FEB 21 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST SUN FEB 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED FROM THE WESTERN BERING INTO THE THE WESTERN
GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND MID LEVELS. BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE
FRONT TO SWING SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST INLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
BERING SEA LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTH TO THE SOUTH. ONLY EXPECT SHOWERS WITH THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN OVER THE BERING SEA. THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS WITH THIS NORTHERN PACIFIC SYSTEM AND A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
HELP THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AS IT PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT.
THE INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT WILL DOWNSLOPE MOST INLAND LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR KODIAK BUT
PUSHES INLAND BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE LOW WORKS
INLAND...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER INLAND LOCATIONS LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

THE NORTHERN PACIFIC PARENT LOW TO BECOME STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET IN THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WAVE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NEXT FRONT IS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THIS TIME. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL AND PUSHES INTO KODIAK TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE TUESDAY ACROSS THE
GULF. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT LOW AND
DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW TO MAKE
ITS WAY TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN WHEN THE
LOW BECOMES STACKED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN DIG INTO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 50N 160W BY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER FARTHER SOUTH
WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. A RESULTANT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL PUSH ANY
DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURES ALONG THE JET AXIS ORIENTED ALONG 140W
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC PUSHED EAST SLOWLY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NEAR
KAMCHATKA BY MID WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN LATER THIS WEEK WITH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 13B
         GALE 2B 3A 5A 6A 8 12A 12B 13A 14
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 05